AI 眼镜与消费硬件 2026:出货放量、巨头开战与端侧智能拐点

Executive Summary · English

(Data updated as of 2026-08-01) In late July the sector entered its "earnings-verification phase": on July 28 EssilorLuxottica reported Q2 AI-glasses revenue nearly doubling year-over-year, with 7M+ Ray-Ban/Oakley Meta units sold in 2025 and talks with Meta to lift annual capacity to 20M units; Meta's Q2 Reality Labs posted $431M revenue (+16%) on a $4.62B operating loss. Samsung officially entered the category at its July 22 Unpacked; Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI moved into discovery while OpenAI's first hardware, the Codex Micro, sold out in 12 hours; Moonshot AI open-sourced Kimi K3's full weights on July 27 as promised, with the ensuing "distillation dispute" escalating into a geopolitical regulatory issue; per Bloomberg, Anthropic could list as early as October. This refresh preserves the original framework, updating only data and developments.

• 01Volume ramp confirmed by actuals: per IDC, Q1 2026 global smart-glasses shipments hit 3.566M units (+130.1% YoY); full-year forecasts cited from IDC range 22.67M–23.69M units globally (varying disclosure vintages) and 4.51M–4.92M for China; Meta's share fell from 85.2% (Omdia, 2025 AI-glasses basis) to roughly 69.2% in IDC's Q1 2026 tracker as rivals scale.
• 02Earnings delivered hard numbers: on July 28 EssilorLuxottica reported Q2 AI-glasses revenue nearly doubling YoY, with 7M+ Ray-Ban/Oakley Meta units sold in 2025 (3x+ the 2023+2024 total); per Bloomberg, the partners are discussing lifting annual capacity from ~10M to 20M units by end-2026 (not finalized). Meta's July 29 Q2: Reality Labs revenue $431M (+16%, AI-glasses driven) on a $4.62B operating loss, ~$88B cumulative; the $799 Ray-Ban Display remains supply-constrained.
• 03Samsung officially unveiled its first smart glasses at the July 22 Galaxy Unpacked in London: display-free, Gemini-powered, Snapdragon AR1 Gen 1, 9-hour battery, fall 2026 launch with pricing TBD — the first top-five phone maker to enter Meta's home turf, opening a second Android-ecosystem front.
• 04The 'entry-point war' advanced on both legal and product tracks: Apple's July 10 suit against OpenAI (naming Tang Tan, Chang Liu, and io Products) moved into broadened discovery, with Apple reportedly sending legal letters to dozens of OpenAI employees on July 17 and OpenAI President Brockman publicly denying the claims on July 29; OpenAI's first hardware, the $230 Codex Micro (launched July 15), sold out in 12 hours and resold on eBay for ~$1,850.
• 05The open-source inflection landed: Moonshot AI open-sourced Kimi K3's full weights and tech report on July 27 as promised (2.8T total params, 104B active, 1M-token context, Modified MIT), topping Frontend Code Arena at 1,679 and leading open models at 57 on Artificial Analysis; on July 22 the White House OSTP director publicly accused K3 of 'large-scale distillation' of Claude Fable 5 — no public technical evidence has emerged and the matter is unresolved — while Jensen Huang rallied 25 organizations in an open letter opposing bans on open models.
• 06Two-way repricing in capital markets: per Bloomberg (July 15), Anthropic's underwriters are arranging investor meetings for a Nasdaq listing as early as October (valued at $965B in May's Series H-1); on July 28 Hong Kong AI names sold off, with Zhipu down as much as 20% intraday and MiniMax over 12% — model-layer valuation swings are transmitting directly into AI hardware.