2026 AI 退出潮:史上最强退出窗口的中场盘点

Executive Summary · English

(Data updated through 2026-08-01) Global venture funding hit a record $510B in H1 2026 — exceeding all of 2025 — and Q2 delivered the most billion-dollar exits since 2021 (Crunchbase). The strongest exit window on record faced its first stress test in mid-to-late July: one month after listing, SpaceX broke below its $135 IPO price on July 15 and closed at $116.49 on July 28, with over $1.2 trillion in market value erased from its June 16 peak. Anthropic began pre-IPO investor meetings on July 15, targeting a Nasdaq debut as soon as October, while OpenAI reportedly leans toward delaying to 2027. Moonshot AI fully open-sourced Kimi K3 on July 27 and reportedly plans an August pre-IPO round targeting a $50B pre-money valuation; Zhipu's market cap topped HK$1 trillion before retreating to ~HK$733B. This refresh preserves the original framework and updates the three main threads — mega IPOs, big-tech M&A consolidation, and China's dual-track listings — with the latest data and risk checklist.

• 01Exit totals confirmed: H1 global venture funding hit $510B, exceeding 2025's full-year ~$440B; North America reached $392B (+158% YoY); Crunchbase confirmed in July that Q2 saw the most billion-dollar exits since 2021 (32 IPOs at $1B+ valuations and 24 $1B+ acquisitions); OpenAI and Anthropic together took ~$217B, or 43% of global venture funding.
• 02Anthropic's October window advances: on July 15, Bloomberg/CNBC reported Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan began scheduling pre-IPO investor meetings, targeting a Nasdaq debut as soon as October; last private valuation was $965B, with bankers reportedly treating a $1T+ debut as the base case; OpenAI has confidentially filed its S-1 but reportedly leans toward delaying to 2027 (NYT), and chairman Bret Taylor said July 17 there is "no update on IPO plans."
• 03SpaceX's midyear turn: after the largest IPO ever on June 12 ($135/share, ~$75B raised, +19% first-day close), shares broke below the IPO price on July 15, briefly traded ~20% below it in late July, and closed at $116.49 on July 28 — over $1.2T in market value erased from the June 16 peak (Bloomberg); a ~5% float, looming lockup expirations, and a $4.9B loss last year weigh on sentiment; the $60B all-stock acquisition of Cursor parent Anysphere is expected to close in Q3, subject to regulatory approval.
• 04Kimi K3's double hit: released July 17 with 2.8T parameters, it topped WebDev Arena at 1679 Elo — above Claude Fable 5 (1631) — the first open model to lead that board; on July 27 Moonshot fully open-sourced it (weights plus MoonEP/FlashKDA/AgentEnv infra), topping Hugging Face trending in 30 minutes, a platform record; on July 18 Musk announced xAI is training a 2T-parameter Grok 4.6 to surpass K3; per National Business Daily (July 22), Moonshot plans August pre-IPO talks targeting a $50B pre-money valuation.
• 05Zhipu's valuation tension turns visible: intraday market cap topped HK$1 trillion on June 22 (nearly 20x in six months) before retreating to ~HK$733.4B by mid-July; 2025 revenue was RMB 724M against a ~RMB 4.7B loss (per Enterprise Observer); the "Reach-High Plan" placement at HK$1,588/share raised ~HK$31.4B, with STAR Market IPO tutoring acceptance in progress (as of the July 18 original report).
• 06Regulation and friction escalate: on July 10 Apple sued OpenAI and its hardware chief Tang Tan in the Northern District of California over alleged trade-secret theft (OpenAI denies; no court ruling yet); the EU AI Act's Digital Omnibus deferred most high-risk obligations to 2027-2028, but transparency duties and the Commission's GPAI enforcement powers took effect August 2 as scheduled; multiple outlets report Musk acquired APR Energy (1.1GW+ mobile power) for over $1B, revealed via regulatory filings in mid-July.