When will YMTC go public, and how far along is its IPO process? 长江存储什么时候上市?进展到哪一步了?

YMTC has not listed yet. The CSRC disclosed its first-stage tutoring report on July 10, 2026 (CITIC Securities + CSC), reportedly completed by July 31, and institutions expect a Q4 2026 listing at the earliest. Its Q1 revenue exceeded RMB 20bn, with a ~13% global NAND share (Counterpoint), fourth worldwide; Reuters reported an unverified internal push for a RMB 1tn valuation target. 长江存储尚未上市。证监会官网7月10日披露其首期辅导报告(中信证券+中信建投),7月31日据报道首期辅导已完成,机构主流预期最快2026年四季度挂牌。其一季度营收突破200亿元,Counterpoint口径全球NAND份额约13%、位列第四;路透社报道内部有1万亿元估值目标的声音,未经证实。

Will DRAM and NAND prices keep rising in Q3 2026, and by how much? 2026年三季度存储芯片(DRAM/NAND)还会涨价吗?涨多少?

Yes, though estimates differ: Taiwanese media citing ADATA's chairman say suppliers notified Q3 contract-price hikes of 20-30% for DRAM and 35-40% for NAND, while TrendForce forecasts +13-18% QoQ for conventional DRAM and +10-15% for NAND, flagging slowing momentum as consumer affordability peaks. Kioxia's July 31 results (quarterly revenue ¥1,767.1bn, +415.5% YoY) confirmed producer profit realization. 会涨但幅度存在分歧:据台湾媒体引述威刚董事长,原厂已通知三季度DRAM合约价再涨20%-30%、NAND再涨35%-40%;TrendForce则预测Q3常规DRAM合约价环比+13%-18%、NAND +10%-15%,并提示消费端承受力见顶、涨幅放缓。Kioxia 7月31日财报单季营收1.7671万亿日元、同比+415.5%,印证原厂盈利兑现。

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半导体存储

存储双雄上市:长鑫+长存 IPO 对半导体板块的影响(2026年7月18日更新)

Q: How much did CXMT surge on its IPO debut, and what is its market cap now? 长鑫科技上市首日涨了多少?现在市值多大?

CXMT listed on the STAR Market (688825) on July 27, 2026 at RMB 8.66/share, opened +471.59% and closed at RMB 49 (+465.82%) with RMB 141.19bn turnover — an A-share single-stock daily record — ending day one at a RMB 3.28tn market cap, the largest in the A-share market. By July 31 it closed at RMB 53.97, about RMB 3.61tn in market cap, roughly +523% versus the issue price. 长鑫科技2026年7月27日登陆科创板(688825),发行价8.66元/股,首日开盘涨471.59%、收盘报49元涨465.82%,全天成交1411.87亿元创A股单日个股纪录,收盘市值3.28万亿元登顶A股;7月31日收于53.97元,市值约3.61万亿元,较发行价累计涨约523%。

天际研究 · AI 研究院 · 2026.05.21 · 全文 14 页 · 预览 4 页

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摘要

(数据更新至 2026-08-01)2026年7月27日,长鑫科技登陆科创板:发行价8.66元/股,首日收涨465.82%,成交1411.87亿元创A股单日个股纪录,收盘市值3.28万亿元登顶A股;7月31日收于53.97元、市值约3.61万亿元,较发行价累计上涨约523%。长江存储7月10日披露首期辅导报告,7月末据报道首期辅导已完成,四季度上市窗口渐明。基本面上,原厂通知三季度DRAM/NAND合约价再涨20-30%/35-40%,Kioxia 7月31日财报印证原厂盈利兑现;需求侧WAIC 2026闭幕、Anthropic十月IPO推进,AI叙事持续加码。本报告保留「定价重构事件」论点骨架,仅刷新数据与进展,不构成投资建议。

关键发现

01长鑫科技7月27日登陆科创板(688825):发行价8.66元/股,首日开盘涨471.59%、收盘报49元涨465.82%,全天成交1411.87亿元创A股单日个股成交纪录,收盘总市值3.28万亿元登顶A股市值第一;7月31日收于53.97元、总市值约3.61万亿元,较发行价累计上涨约523%。
02本次IPO募资约579亿元(超额配售前,另设最高15%绿鞋),为科创板史上最大;此前7月16日申购中有效申购942.9万户、网上中签率0.4714%创科创板纪录;公司预计2026年上半年营收1100亿-1200亿元、净利润500亿-570亿元,路透社7月24日报道其一季度营收约75亿美元、同比+719%。
03长江存储:证监会官网7月10日披露首期辅导报告(中信证券+中信建投),7月31日据报道首期辅导工作已完成,机构主流预期最快四季度挂牌;一季度营收突破200亿元(多源印证,同比增速口径不一),Counterpoint口径其一季度全球NAND份额约13%、跻身全球第四;据路透社报道,内部有推动1万亿元估值目标的声音(未经证实)。
04存储价格:据台湾媒体引述威刚董事长,原厂已通知三季度DRAM合约价再涨20%-30%、NAND再涨35%-40%;TrendForce预测Q3常规DRAM合约价环比+13%-18%、NAND +10%-15%,并提示消费端承受力见顶、涨幅放缓;Kioxia 7月31日财报单季营收1.7671万亿日元、同比+415.5%,股价单日+17.7%,印证原厂盈利兑现。
05AI需求与估值锚:Anthropic已于6月1日向SEC秘密递交注册文件,据彭博/CNBC 7月15日报道承销行已安排投资者会议、最快10月上市(5月一轮融资后估值9650亿美元),OpenAI据报道倾向推迟至2027年;WAIC 2026于7月28日在上海闭幕,据现场报道华为首次公开展出昇腾950超节点真机;7月31日CNBC节目讨论苹果是否会因内存涨价转向长鑫/长存供应。

Executive Summary · English

(Data as of Aug 1, 2026) On July 27, 2026, CXMT debuted on the STAR Market: priced at RMB 8.66/share, it closed up 465.82% on day one with RMB 141.2bn turnover — an A-share single-stock record — and a RMB 3.28tn close-of-day market cap, the largest in the A-share market; by July 31 it closed at RMB 53.97 (~RMB 3.61tn cap, ~+523% vs. issue price). YMTC's first-stage IPO tutoring report was disclosed on July 10 and reportedly completed by end-July, keeping a Q4 listing window in view. Fundamentals stay supportive: suppliers have notified 20-30%/35-40% Q3 DRAM/NAND contract-price hikes, and Kioxia's July 31 results confirmed producer profit realization; on the demand side, WAIC 2026 concluded and Anthropic's potential October IPO advanced. This refresh preserves the original "repricing event" thesis and updates only data and developments. Not investment advice.

01CXMT listed on the STAR Market (688825) on July 27: priced at RMB 8.66, it opened +471.59%, closed at RMB 49 (+465.82%) with RMB 141.19bn turnover — an A-share single-stock daily record — and a RMB 3.28tn market cap, the largest in the A-share market; on July 31 it closed at RMB 53.97 (~RMB 3.61tn cap, ~+523% vs. issue price).
02The IPO raised ~RMB 57.9bn before greenshoe (up to 15%), the largest STAR Market IPO ever; the July 16 subscription drew 9.429mn valid accounts with a record-low 0.4714% online allotment rate; the company guides H1 2026 revenue of RMB 110-120bn and net profit of RMB 50-57bn, and Reuters (July 24) reported Q1 revenue of ~$7.5bn, up 719% YoY.
03YMTC: the CSRC website disclosed its first-stage tutoring report on July 10 (CITIC Securities + CSC), reportedly completed by July 31, with institutions expecting a Q4 listing at the earliest; Q1 revenue exceeded RMB 20bn (multi-source, growth-rate figures vary), Counterpoint puts its Q1 global NAND share at ~13%, fourth worldwide; Reuters reported an internal push for a RMB 1tn valuation target (unverified).
04Memory prices: per Taiwanese media citing ADATA's chairman, suppliers notified Q3 contract-price hikes of 20-30% for DRAM and 35-40% for NAND; TrendForce forecasts Q3 conventional DRAM +13-18% QoQ and NAND +10-15%, flagging slowing momentum as consumer affordability peaks; Kioxia's July 31 results (quarterly revenue ¥1,767.1bn, +415.5% YoY; stock +17.7% in a day) confirmed producer profit realization.
05AI demand and valuation anchors: Anthropic confidentially filed with the SEC on June 1; per Bloomberg/CNBC (July 15), underwriters are arranging investor meetings for a possible October listing ($965bn valuation after May's round), while OpenAI reportedly drifts to 2027; WAIC 2026 closed in Shanghai on July 28, where Huawei reportedly showed its Ascend 950 SuperPoD in public for the first time; on July 31 CNBC aired debate on whether Apple might tap CXMT/YMTC as memory costs rise.

一、长鑫科技:从受理到挂牌的「科创板速度」

7月16日网上申购(有效申购942.9万户、回拨后网上中签率0.4714%创科创板纪录)之后,长鑫科技于7月27日如期挂牌,全程兑现「科创板速度」。首日以49.5元开盘,较8.66元发行价高开471.59%,盘中一度涨超530%(最高55.03元),收盘报49元、涨465.82%;全天成交1411.87亿元,创A股单日个股成交额纪录;收盘总市值3.28万亿元,登顶A股市值第一,中一签(500股)盈利约2万元。首周动能延续:7月31日收于53.97元(当日+2.08%),总市值约3.61万亿元,较发行价累计上涨约523%。发行端,本次募资约579亿元(另设最高15%超额配售权),为科创板史上最大IPO,路透社称发行规模约86亿美元。定价之争聚焦盈利兑现:公司预计2026年上半年营收1100亿-1200亿元、净利润500亿-570亿元;路透社报道其一季度营收约75亿美元、同比增长719%。已证实的交易数据与仍待验证的盈利持续性,构成后市分歧的两端。

二、长江存储:辅导推进,四季度窗口渐明

长江存储的资本化时间表在7月持续推进:5月19日在湖北证监局完成辅导备案(中信证券、中信建投联合辅导)后,证监会官网7月10日披露其首期辅导报告;7月31日多家媒体报道其首期辅导工作已完成,机构主流预期最快四季度挂牌——该时点仍属「据报道」,以监管验收与正式申报为准。基本面上,多个信源交叉印证其2026年一季度营收突破200亿元;不同报道对同比增速口径不一(自翻倍至445%不等),精确数据以后续申报文件为准。据Counterpoint数据,其一季度全球NAND份额升至13%左右、跻身全球第四;据报道294层产品已量产、企业级SSD批量进入国内头部云厂商供应链,三期工厂预计2026年底投产,月产能规划由20万片增至30万片。估值层面分歧极大:据路透社7月24日报道,有高管在内部推动1万亿元估值目标,该说法未经证实;市场讨论区间从千亿级到万亿级不等,本报告不作判断。

三、基本面:存储超级周期为 IPO 定价托底

涨价周期继续为两单IPO的定价提供基本面托底,但斜率开始收敛。渠道信号:据台湾《经济日报》等引述威刚董事长,原厂已通知三季度DRAM合约价再涨20%-30%、NAND再涨35%-40%。研究机构口径相对克制:TrendForce预测三季度常规DRAM合约价环比+13%-18%、NAND +10%-15%,服务器DRAM +13%-18%(长约压制涨幅),并提示消费端承受力见顶、涨幅较前两季明显放缓——「涨价仍在、斜率变缓」是三季度的中性描述。原厂盈利兑现获得硬数据:Kioxia 7月31日发布季报,单季营收1.7671万亿日元、同比+415.5%,平均售价环比大涨,股价单日上涨17.7%;瑞银7月初据报道再度上调DRAM/NAND价格预测,美银据报道将本轮超级周期看至2027年底,美光HBM产能据报道已售罄至2027年。周期长度与拐点时点仍存分歧,是两单IPO定价最大的基本面变量。

关键问答

长鑫科技上市首日涨了多少?现在市值多大?

长鑫科技2026年7月27日登陆科创板(688825),发行价8.66元/股,首日开盘涨471.59%、收盘报49元涨465.82%,全天成交1411.87亿元创A股单日个股纪录,收盘市值3.28万亿元登顶A股;7月31日收于53.97元,市值约3.61万亿元,较发行价累计涨约523%。

长江存储什么时候上市?进展到哪一步了?

长江存储尚未上市。证监会官网7月10日披露其首期辅导报告(中信证券+中信建投),7月31日据报道首期辅导已完成,机构主流预期最快2026年四季度挂牌。其一季度营收突破200亿元,Counterpoint口径全球NAND份额约13%、位列第四;路透社报道内部有1万亿元估值目标的声音,未经证实。

2026年三季度存储芯片(DRAM/NAND)还会涨价吗?涨多少?

会涨但幅度存在分歧:据台湾媒体引述威刚董事长,原厂已通知三季度DRAM合约价再涨20%-30%、NAND再涨35%-40%;TrendForce则预测Q3常规DRAM合约价环比+13%-18%、NAND +10%-15%,并提示消费端承受力见顶、涨幅放缓。Kioxia 7月31日财报单季营收1.7671万亿日元、同比+415.5%,印证原厂盈利兑现。

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